FluxBlog

Super-team season is almost upon us, as the 2023 WNBA campaign tips off in less than a month, and the title race is widely expected to come down to two teams: the defending champion Las Vegas Aces and the upstart New York Liberty.

We’ve spent plenty of time at The Athletic getting into those two teams this offseason, specifically how the Liberty came together after two years of early playoff exits; so for now, let’s focus on the other 10. We asked for your WNBA questions with training camp just a couple weeks away, and the conversation focused entirely on the teams looking to break up the projected Las Vegas/New York duopoly atop the standings.

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How do you see the Storm’s point guard situation shaking out this season? They have several combo guards that seem set to start, but no true table-setter. Then Jade Melbourne and Ivana Dojkic could be intriguing bench options. Who do you see handling the ball for Seattle? — Brian V.

After 20 years of essentially the greatest possible point guard play, it was always going to be a challenge for Seattle to replace Sue Bird. Jordin Canada was drafted as a potential successor in 2018, but her jump shot never came around. Although the Storm have delayed the inevitable for as long as possible, the reckoning has finally arrived.

Seattle doesn’t have a clear-cut Bird replacement on the roster. At least half a dozen guards under contract have ballhandling experience but are either WNBA rookies or more traditional scorers rather than playmakers. It doesn’t seem like the Storm are set to contend right away, so handing the reins to 20-year-old Jade Melbourne, who just led the WNBL with 6.1 assists per game for the UC Capitals, wouldn’t be the worst idea. However, WNBA teams rarely let rookies run the show from Day 1 — Bird being an obvious exception — and Melbourne certainly doesn’t have that pedigree.

Even if this is likely a rebuilding season in Seattle, it’s hard for franchises to begin the season expecting to lose. That means a veteran starting five is likely to take the court on opening night: potentially Jewell Loyd, Sami Whitcomb and Kia Nurse alongside Ezi Magbegor and Mercedes Russell. Loyd is a decent creator with the ball in her hands, and Russell can function as a handoff hub/high-post passer to keep things moving. Ideally, Jordan Horston gets some minutes with the starting group, and coach Noelle Quinn figures out if Horston can take on the point guard role full-time (she split playmaking duties at Tennessee). I’d love to see Arella Guirantes get a chance to run the offense too after playing point guard in Hungary this past year. Guirantes was overtaxed with limited surrounding talent, but that shouldn’t be the case with the Storm, where the surrounding shooters — especially if Theresa Plaisance is at one of the frontcourt positions — will open the lane for her.

Is Tina Charles just done? Is there a team that is a good fit for her at this point? — Randy B.

It certainly seemed like the only team showing any interest in Tina Charles during the offseason was the UConn Huskies, and unfortunately, she’s exhausted her eligibility there. There are only 12 teams in the WNBA, and Charles has burned bridges with a few of them. It’s hard to see her going back to the Liberty or Sun after engineering trades from both franchises. Things didn’t work out in Washington and definitely not in Phoenix. Seattle dipped its toes in the Charles waters and came away unimpressed while Las Vegas repeatedly targeted her en route to winning that epic semifinal playoff series.

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That leaves six squads: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Indiana, Los Angeles and Minnesota. Most of those squads are rebuilding, though, and Charles wants to play for a ring at this point in her career. Charles was teammates with now-Dream coach Tanisha Wright in New York, and Atlanta doesn’t have a ton of frontcourt offense, giving that reunion some potential if the Dream want to make a splash. However, they probably are better off letting Iliana Rupert, Naz Hillmon, Laeticia Amihere and Haley Jones develop than giving minutes to a power forward who can no longer defend. That’s part of the problem with Charles — she can still get buckets, but she dominates the ball and she gives those points back on the other end.

Ultimately, I think Charles begins the season unsigned and waits until around the All-Star break when the standings have solidified a bit. At that point, there may be an organization that can convince her to take on a smaller role, because she’s no longer starter-worthy for a winning team.

I’m excited by the Fever’s new front office and bench faces. Predictions for their season with strong draft class? — Morgan B.

How far are the Fever from making noise in the playoffs? — George R.

I love the direction of the Fever, but the good stuff is still yet to come. They have a first-year head coach and will probably begin the season with two-thirds of the roster as rookies or sophomores. That kind of roster makeup doesn’t equate to winning right away, and I would expect this franchise to be back in the lottery in 2024 and 2025.

However, there is a lot to be excited about in Indiana. Aliyah Boston and Grace Berger should be able market themselves in that city, and the buzz surrounding their selections has been awesome. The Fever have good defensive personnel at every position; whether they all play together is a different story, but getting stops is the foundation of an actual identity. It’ll be interesting to watch Boston play in a pick-and-roll offense for the first time. She has become so proficient at her specific set of skills that I’m eager to see her expand her tool box, and she’ll have willing pick-and-roll operators in Erica Wheeler and Berger.

The battle between Taylor Mikesell, Lexie Hull and Kristy Wallace as the designated shooter alongside Kelsey Mitchell, a point guard, and two bigs will be fun. I want to see if Emily Engstler can carve out a role for herself after doing a little bit of everything in college but then failing to stick at any one thing as a rookie. Queen Egbo was kind of the opposite in her first season, though she probably has a lower ceiling than Engstler. I think Boston and NaLyssa Smith will grow into a formidable frontcourt tandem, but there definitely will be growing pains in Year 1.

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More than anything, this season should help clarify what Indiana will be going forward, even if — I know this is copping out — I don’t know what that is yet.

Do you think Haley Jones will develop a jumper and become a legit contender for ROY? And how long do you think it will take before the Dream begins to compete for championships? — Reggie W.

I think Haley Jones is a ROY contender with or without the jumper. Then again — I say this as one of two voters (out of 53) who picked Shakira Austin as the 2022 rookie of the year — I value players who contribute to winning, and Jones can do that, even if that’s not what the voters tend to reward. The award usually goes to players who rack up the most stats, and I’m not sure Jones will even be starting, while Boston and Diamond Miller will have opportunities to pad the box score. Suffice to say, I predict Jones will be a great rookie, even if she doesn’t get the hardware immediately.

The Dream should make the playoffs this year, but they’re one frontcourt addition away from really challenging as a championship contender. Keep an eye on the 2024 offseason, when Danielle Robinson and Monique Billings come off the books and some excellent bigs hit the open market, including maybe A’ja Wilson.

What do you think about the Mystics chances for fixing what needs to be fixed under their new-ish, old-ish coach? – Wizards P.

The Mystics had the best defense in the league last year, but the teams that do well in the playoffs have the best offenses. Washington, more than anything, needed to add some efficient scoring — or at least shooting — during the offseason, and that didn’t happen.

Nevertheless, a key development of the offseason is that Elena Delle Donne is healthy and preparing normally for the upcoming season. She might be the most dominant offensive player in the league if she is in form, and her command of the game turns her teammates into scoring threats regardless of their individual skill.

I would assume Eric Thibault will run a similar system as his father, having been an assistant on this staff for the last decade. The one change I’d like to see from Thibault the younger is a faster pace. The Mystics have some athletes now, especially with the addition of Brittney Sykes. There’s no need for them to play with the slowest pace in the league, and scoring in transition will help boost their offensive efficiency.

Do you see Diamond Miller elevating the Lynx back to a perennial contender like Maya Moore did? What other pieces are needed for that to happen? – Marc H.

I simply can’t compare Miller to Maya Moore. No matter how exciting of a prospect Miller is — and WNBA GMs universally love her — she’s not in the same league as a generational talent like Moore, who might be the greatest player of all time even with her limited time as a pro. Furthermore, Moore had the good fortune of coming to Minnesota when the Lynx already had Seimone Augustus, Rebekkah Brunson and Lindsay Whalen.

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Miller has the potential to be a 1A on a winning team, and maybe even join Napheesa Collier as the linchpins of the next great Minnesota squad. The Lynx need a point guard to help run the show, as well as another shooter/spacer, though Kayla McBride is doing a fine job of filling that role for now. The jury is still out on Rachel Banham and Bridget Carleton being consistent enough, or even willing enough, shooters to eventually supplant McBride. The Lynx also need a defensive complement to Collier in the frontcourt. Maybe that’s Maïa Hirsch, or maybe they’re still looking for that player. Miller and Collier should be a dynamic duo for years to come. I don’t think the supporting cast is good enough to get Minnesota to a perennial postseason level, let alone contention, yet.

Whether through draft or free agency, who are your top 3 impact role players suiting up for new teams this year? – Trey H.

Is Candace Parker a role player now? Probably not. In fact, let’s eliminate any multi-time All-Stars from this question.

Even though the question said “draft or free agency”, I’m going to assume trades factor in. So my list is Kayla Thornton, Jasmine Thomas and Elizabeth Williams, with apologies to Marina Mabrey and Allisha Gray, who are just too good to be role players any more.

So the Sky are rebuilding. Can they win HALF their games this year? – Tom R.

The top six teams in the league win at least half of their games. There isn’t a huge distinction between the fourth-best team in the WNBA this year and the ninth or 10th best, and the Sky fall into that morass. So they definitely can win half, and I’d put their odds of doing so around 65 percent.

Chicago can put together a pretty decent starting lineup with Mabrey, Rebekah Gardner, Kahleah Copper, Isabelle Harrison and Elizabeth Williams, a group that should excel on defense, at the very least. Dana Evans and Courtney Williams can put some hurt on second units, making up for the fact the Sky are lacking proven frontcourt depth. (Hey, maybe this is a Tina Charles destination!) Most importantly, James Wade is coaching to win, having traded away next year’s first-round pick, and the bulk of Chicago’s rotation hits free agency next year, so the Sky will have the same goal.

(Photo of Haley Jones: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

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